The winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on Friday, October 9, in Oslo, with experts suggesting the award will likely honor efforts to reinforce multilateralism amid global fragmentation. The Norwegian Nobel Committee received 287 nominations this year, over a quarter of which are organizations, with all details kept secret for 50 years.

Leading institutional favorites are the International Criminal Court (ICC), the International Court of Justice (ICJ), and the International Space Station. Among individuals, top contenders include Pope Leo XIV, UN Special Rapporteur for the occupied Palestinian territories Francesca Albanese, and Chinese pro-democracy journalist and activist Jimmy Lai.

Other speculated names include former US President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. Trump recently argued he deserved the prize for supposedly ending eight conflicts, though critics note he failed to end the Russia-Ukraine war and started a new conflict in the Middle East. Carney gained international prominence defending Canada’s positions in trade disputes with Trump.

The selection is seen as a reflection of the current landscape of wars and humanitarian crises, with analysts also highlighting candidates linked to human rights, press freedom, and direct aid to civilians in conflict zones like Sudan.